Is it really true that my children will not have the same opportunities or lifestyle that I have had when they are my age?
This is the question just about every parent I know asks at some time or another.
Not that long ago, I heard a presentation with Harvard Professor, Dr. Raj Chetty, who addressed a room of leaders on the decline of the “American Dream”. He stated that the probability of children out-earning their parents has fallen from over 90% in 1949 to 50/50 for those born in the 1980s.
He also said that there are four key predictors to economic mobility:
- Lower poverty rates – areas where there is a mixed income
- More stable family structure
- Better school quality
- Greater social capital, which he characterized as the exposure to different career and lifestyle pathways.
This last point got my attention for two reasons. First, because he highlighted that both sports and religion are powerful forces for this; and second, because he spoke about the power of mentorship, which is a key component of PEP.
I have seen this for myself so many times – the meaning and encouragement one business executive can give to an inmate when they spend time with them in prison. The importance of the community of people, who would otherwise not know each other, who learn about the other, and have their realities changed. This is what PEP does week after week.
Chetty concluded that investing in opportunity is not just about fairness; it’s essential for economic growth by unlocking “Lost Einsteins.” He estimates the U.S. would have four times as many inventors if talent from all backgrounds was developed equally.
After Chetty spoke, we heard from Dr. Flavio Cuhna who called our attention to the significant increase in economic development in Houston from 1980-2010; and at the same time, the doubling of the poverty rate.
How and why?
Specific to Houston, he said that the region has immigrated as many people from other parts of the country and world as it had created jobs. In other words, all the new jobs have gone to new residents. In other words, Houston is not upskilling its own people.
But there is another problem, which is not specific to Houston. Trends that show:
- 1950-1970: Employers invested in on-the-job-training, with the idea that an employee would stay with that employer for many years.
- 1980-2000: A shift to credentialism and cost-cutting for fear that a well-trained employee would be hired by an employer’s competitor. Instead of developing skills, employers started buying skills, and the role of human capital formation was transferred to families and schools.
- 2010-Present: There is an expectation that employees are “job-ready”
The challenges of this information are significant:
- What mindset change is needed to invest in people who are forgotten, and how do you do this?
- What are implications of technology on solutions that require people to be in contact with each other, even more so, those who are radically different than the other?
- How do we increase commitment in a world with such limited attention spans an ever-increasing mobility?
The answer provided to us was to find a “north star” metric – a single, unifying measure to anchor collaboration and track progress on economic mobility over time. It has to be:
- Valid: measures what it claims to measure;
- Responsive: reacts proportionally and quickly to real changes;
- Reliable: consistent across time and contexts; and
- Specific: captures real change and distinguishes progress from stagnation.
Could this be belonging? Recidivism? Something else?
Whatever it is, a north star metric must be simple enough for everyone to understand, transparent enough for everyone to trust, and disaggregated enough to make inequality visible rather than invisible.
May we find such a star.